expected utility theory (with John von Neumann)

E11182

decision theory economic theory mathematician normative theory of choice physicist theory of rational choice under risk

Expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) is a foundational framework in economics and decision theory that models how rational agents make choices under uncertainty by maximizing the expected value of a utility function.

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All labels observed (6)

Label	Occurrences
expected utility theory	4
von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem	2
expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) canonical	1
minimax theorem	1
von Neumann–Morgenstern expected utility theory	1
von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions	1

How this entity was disambiguated

This entity first appeared as the object of triple T81429 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.

NED1 Entity disambiguation (via context triple) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07

Target entity: expected utility theory (with John von Neumann)
Context triple: [Oskar Morgenstern, theoryDeveloped, expected utility theory (with John von Neumann)]

A. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior is a foundational 1944 book by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern that established game theory as a rigorous mathematical framework for analyzing strategic decision-making in economics.
B. Nash bargaining solution
The Nash bargaining solution is a foundational concept in game theory that defines a fair and efficient outcome for two-party bargaining problems based on axioms of rationality and symmetry.
C. A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability is John Maynard Keynes’s influential 1921 work that develops a logical and philosophical theory of probability, challenging classical and frequency-based interpretations.
D. De ratiociniis in ludo aleae
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae is a pioneering 17th-century treatise on probability theory, particularly as applied to games of chance.
E. Oskar Morgenstern
Oskar Morgenstern was an Austrian-American economist best known as the co-founder of game theory through his seminal work "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" with John von Neumann.
F. None of above. chosen
G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.

NED2 Entity disambiguation (via description) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07

Target entity: expected utility theory (with John von Neumann)
Target entity description: Expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) is a foundational framework in economics and decision theory that models how rational agents make choices under uncertainty by maximizing the expected value of a utility function.

A. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior is a foundational 1944 book by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern that established game theory as a rigorous mathematical framework for analyzing strategic decision-making in economics.
B. Nash bargaining solution
The Nash bargaining solution is a foundational concept in game theory that defines a fair and efficient outcome for two-party bargaining problems based on axioms of rationality and symmetry.
C. A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability is John Maynard Keynes’s influential 1921 work that develops a logical and philosophical theory of probability, challenging classical and frequency-based interpretations.
D. De ratiociniis in ludo aleae
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae is a pioneering 17th-century treatise on probability theory, particularly as applied to games of chance.
E. Oskar Morgenstern
Oskar Morgenstern was an Austrian-American economist best known as the co-founder of game theory through his seminal work "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" with John von Neumann.
F. None of above. chosen

Statements (49)

Predicate	Object
instanceOf	decision theory ⓘ economic theory ⓘ mathematician ⓘ normative theory of choice ⓘ physicist ⓘ theory of rational choice under risk ⓘ
appliesTo	choices among risky lotteries ⓘ decisions under risk ⓘ
assumes	agents have a utility function over outcomes ⓘ expected utility axiom ⓘ independence axiom ⓘ preferences are continuous ⓘ preferences over lotteries are complete ⓘ preferences over lotteries are transitive ⓘ
characterizes	rational choice under risk ⓘ
coauthored	Theory of Games and Economic Behavior ⓘ
contrastsWith	expected value maximization of monetary payoffs ⓘ
coreIdea	rational agents maximize expected utility rather than expected monetary value ⓘ
criticizedBy	prospect theory ⓘ
criticizedFor	inability to explain Allais paradox ⓘ inability to explain Ellsberg paradox ⓘ violations of independence axiom in empirical data ⓘ
describedIn	Theory of Games and Economic Behavior ⓘ
developedBy	John von Neumann ⓘ Oskar Morgenstern ⓘ
entails	risk attitudes are captured by curvature of utility function ⓘ
field	decision theory ⓘ economics ⓘ game theory ⓘ
formalizedBy	expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) self-linksurface differs ⓘ surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem
hasVariant	expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) self-linksurface differs ⓘ surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern expected utility theory
implies	choices can be represented as maximization of expected utility ⓘ
influenced	finance theory ⓘ Theory of Games and Economic Behavior ⓘ surface form: game theory modern microeconomic theory ⓘ risk analysis ⓘ welfare economics ⓘ
influencedBy	Bernoulli’s theory of utility ⓘ
knownFor	co-founding expected utility theory ⓘ
mathematicalForm	EU(a)=Σ p_i u(x_i) over possible outcomes x_i with probabilities p_i ⓘ
publicationYear	1944 ⓘ
requires	cardinal utility up to positive affine transformations ⓘ
usedIn	cost–benefit analysis ⓘ expected utility maximization models in macroeconomics ⓘ insurance economics ⓘ portfolio choice theory ⓘ
usesConcept	lottery over outcomes ⓘ probability distribution over outcomes ⓘ utility function ⓘ

How these facts were elicited

Referenced by (10)

Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.

Oskar Morgenstern → theoryDeveloped → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

John von Neumann → knownFor → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: minimax theorem

John von Neumann → notableConcept → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem

Nash bargaining solution → assumes → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions

expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) → hasVariant → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) self-linksurface differs ⓘ

subject surface form: expected utility theory

this entity surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern expected utility theory

expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) → formalizedBy → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) self-linksurface differs ⓘ

subject surface form: expected utility theory

this entity surface form: von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem

Pascal's wager → relatedConcept → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: expected utility theory

prospect theory → contrastsWith → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

subject surface form: Prospect theory

this entity surface form: expected utility theory

Fisher separation theorem → relatedTo → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: expected utility theory

behavioral economics → critiques → expected utility theory (with John von Neumann) ⓘ

this entity surface form: expected utility theory

All labels observed (6)

How this entity was disambiguated Show

Statements (49)

How these facts were elicited Show

Referenced by (10)

How this entity was disambiguated

How these facts were elicited