law of accelerating returns
E577762
concept in technological singularity studies
concept in transhumanism
futurist theory
theory of technological change
The law of accelerating returns is Ray Kurzweil’s theory that technological progress, especially in information technologies, grows at an exponential and compounding rate, leading to increasingly rapid and transformative change.
Statements (50)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| instanceOf |
concept in technological singularity studies
ⓘ
concept in transhumanism ⓘ futurist theory ⓘ theory of technological change ⓘ |
| appliesTo |
artificial intelligence capabilities
ⓘ
biotechnology ⓘ communication technologies ⓘ computing power ⓘ information technology ⓘ nanotechnology ⓘ |
| contrastedWith | linear models of technological progress ⓘ |
| coreIdea |
each new technological generation builds on the previous at a faster pace
ⓘ
information-based technologies double in capability on predictable timescales ⓘ multiple overlapping technological paradigms sustain long-term exponential growth ⓘ rate of technological progress itself increases over time ⓘ technological progress is often underestimated because it is exponential rather than linear ⓘ |
| criticizedFor |
insufficient attention to physical and social constraints
ⓘ
optimistic bias about technology ⓘ reliance on selective historical data ⓘ |
| describes |
accelerating rate of innovation
ⓘ
compounding technological change ⓘ exponential technological progress ⓘ nonlinear growth of information technologies ⓘ |
| field |
artificial intelligence
ⓘ
computing ⓘ futurology ⓘ innovation studies ⓘ technology studies ⓘ |
| influencedBy |
Moore's law
NERFINISHED
ⓘ
observed exponential trends in computing ⓘ |
| influences |
discourse on AI timelines
ⓘ
public debates about the future of work ⓘ speculative scenarios about post-human futures ⓘ |
| predicts |
eventual emergence of superhuman artificial intelligence
ⓘ
future convergence of technologies such as AI, nano, and bio ⓘ increasingly rapid and transformative technological change ⓘ radical impacts on society and the economy ⓘ shortening intervals between major technological breakthroughs ⓘ |
| proposedBy | Ray Kurzweil NERFINISHED ⓘ |
| relatedTo |
Kurzweil's singularity hypothesis
NERFINISHED
ⓘ
Moore's law NERFINISHED ⓘ exponential growth ⓘ paradigm shifts ⓘ technological singularity NERFINISHED ⓘ transhumanism NERFINISHED ⓘ |
| timeScale | long-term historical analysis of technology ⓘ |
| usedIn |
Kurzweil's book "The Age of Spiritual Machines"
NERFINISHED
ⓘ
Kurzweil's book "The Singularity Is Near" NERFINISHED ⓘ arguments for the technological singularity ⓘ long-term forecasts of AI progress ⓘ |
Referenced by (2)
Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.