Triple

T12798002
Position Surface form Disambiguated ID Type / Status
Subject Carnap's continuum of inductive methods E305938 entity
Predicate hasMember P10 FINISHED
Object Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)
Laplace's rule of succession is a classical Bayesian rule for estimating the probability of an event based on observed successes and failures, assigning a nonzero prior probability to unobserved outcomes.
E1002836 NE FINISHED

How this triple was built (4 steps)

Every LLM step that produced this triple, in pipeline order — named-entity classification, the disambiguation choices (the exact options shown, with the pick highlighted), and the generated description. The batch + timestamp of each is in the Provenance table below.

NER Named-entity recognition gpt-5-mini
Instruction
Given a phrase, classify it is english named entity (e.g., persons, organizations, works of art) in Latin script, or not (e.g., literals, dates, URLs, verbose phrases). For disambiguation, the statement where the phrase occurs as object is also given. Please return a JSON object with `phrase` (string, the phrase being analyzed) and `is_ne` (boolean, indicating whether the phrase is a Named Entity).
Input
Phrase: Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case) | Statement: [Carnap's continuum of inductive methods, hasMember, Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)]
NED1 Entity disambiguation (via context triple) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)
Context triple: [Carnap's continuum of inductive methods, hasMember, Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)]
  • A. Bayes’ theorem
    Bayes’ theorem is a fundamental result in probability theory that describes how to update the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence.
  • B. Bayes rules
    Bayes rules are decision rules in statistical decision theory that minimize expected loss with respect to a prior distribution, forming a central concept in Bayesian optimal decision-making.
  • C. Bayes
    Bayes is a surname most famously associated with Thomas Bayes, the 18th-century statistician and minister whose work led to the development of Bayesian probability theory.
  • D. Pólya’s urn model
    Pólya’s urn model is a classic probabilistic scheme in which drawing and then reinforcing the color of balls in an urn produces rich-get-richer dynamics and illustrates concepts like contagion, dependence, and random reinforcement.
  • E. The Emergence of Probability
    The Emergence of Probability is a seminal philosophical and historical study by Ian Hacking that traces how modern concepts of probability and statistical reasoning developed from the 16th to the 19th century.
  • F. None of above. chosen
  • G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.
NEDg Description generation gpt-5.1
Instruction
Generate a one-sentence description of the target entity. 
You are given a context triple in the form (subject, predicate, object), where the object is the target entity. 
# Instructions
Use the triple to infer relevant information about the entity. Describe the entity based on what is most defining, well-known. 
Avoid repeating the information from the triple, unless really essential.
# Response Format
Return only the sentence: "Description: [one-sentence description of the target entity]"
Input
Entity: Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)
Triple: [Carnap's continuum of inductive methods, hasMember, Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)]
Generated description
Laplace's rule of succession is a classical Bayesian rule for estimating the probability of an event based on observed successes and failures, assigning a nonzero prior probability to unobserved outcomes.
NED2 Entity disambiguation (via description) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Laplace's rule of succession (as a special case)
Target entity description: Laplace's rule of succession is a classical Bayesian rule for estimating the probability of an event based on observed successes and failures, assigning a nonzero prior probability to unobserved outcomes.
  • A. Bayes’ theorem
    Bayes’ theorem is a fundamental result in probability theory that describes how to update the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence.
  • B. Bayes rules
    Bayes rules are decision rules in statistical decision theory that minimize expected loss with respect to a prior distribution, forming a central concept in Bayesian optimal decision-making.
  • C. Bayes
    Bayes is a surname most famously associated with Thomas Bayes, the 18th-century statistician and minister whose work led to the development of Bayesian probability theory.
  • D. Pólya’s urn model
    Pólya’s urn model is a classic probabilistic scheme in which drawing and then reinforcing the color of balls in an urn produces rich-get-richer dynamics and illustrates concepts like contagion, dependence, and random reinforcement.
  • E. The Emergence of Probability
    The Emergence of Probability is a seminal philosophical and historical study by Ian Hacking that traces how modern concepts of probability and statistical reasoning developed from the 16th to the 19th century.
  • F. None of above. chosen

Provenance (5 batches)

The batch behind each pipeline step, in order, with when it ran. Timestamps are batch-level — stages were processed in waves, so the object chain (NER → NED1 → NEDg → NED2) reads in order, but predicate / elicitation batches can sit in a different wave.

Step Stage Batch ID Status When
creating Elicitation batch_69d7bdf366888190a8cccb982606889c completed April 9, 2026, 2:55 p.m.
NER Named-entity recognition batch_69d96e6f858c8190915ede38e9a6a2df completed April 10, 2026, 9:41 p.m.
NED1 Entity disambiguation (via context triple) batch_69f6850f9ae4819094599b48d8d3a074 completed May 2, 2026, 11:13 p.m.
NEDg Description generation batch_69f685dd1a88819096e40711f10d898a completed May 2, 2026, 11:16 p.m.
NED2 Entity disambiguation (via description) batch_69f68884ed348190a1b2c89b1d655fa9 completed May 2, 2026, 11:28 p.m.
Created at: April 9, 2026, 5:30 p.m.