Condorcet jury theorem
E941645
The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.
All labels observed (1)
| Label | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| Condorcet jury theorem canonical | 1 |
How this entity was disambiguated
This entity first appeared as the object of triple T11700299 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.
NED1
Entity disambiguation (via context triple)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Condorcet jury theorem Context triple: [Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix, relatedConcept, Condorcet jury theorem]
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A.
Arrow’s impossibility theorem
Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a foundational result in social choice theory showing that no voting system can convert individual preferences into a collective ranking while simultaneously satisfying a set of seemingly reasonable fairness criteria.
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B.
Condorcet paradox
The Condorcet paradox is a voting theory phenomenon where collective preferences can become cyclic and inconsistent, even when individual voters’ preferences are perfectly rational and transitive.
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C.
Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem
The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem is a fundamental result in social choice theory showing that every reasonable voting system with at least three options is susceptible to strategic manipulation by voters.
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D.
Social Choice and Individual Values
Social Choice and Individual Values is a foundational 1951 book by economist Kenneth Arrow that established modern social choice theory and introduced Arrow’s impossibility theorem.
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E.
Condorcet criterion
The Condorcet criterion is a voting system standard requiring that if a candidate would win every head-to-head contest against each other candidate, that candidate must be the overall election winner.
- F. None of above. chosen
- G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.
NED2
Entity disambiguation (via description)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Condorcet jury theorem Target entity description: The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.
-
A.
Arrow’s impossibility theorem
Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a foundational result in social choice theory showing that no voting system can convert individual preferences into a collective ranking while simultaneously satisfying a set of seemingly reasonable fairness criteria.
-
B.
Condorcet paradox
The Condorcet paradox is a voting theory phenomenon where collective preferences can become cyclic and inconsistent, even when individual voters’ preferences are perfectly rational and transitive.
-
C.
Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem
The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem is a fundamental result in social choice theory showing that every reasonable voting system with at least three options is susceptible to strategic manipulation by voters.
-
D.
Social Choice and Individual Values
Social Choice and Individual Values is a foundational 1951 book by economist Kenneth Arrow that established modern social choice theory and introduced Arrow’s impossibility theorem.
-
E.
Condorcet criterion
The Condorcet criterion is a voting system standard requiring that if a candidate would win every head-to-head contest against each other candidate, that candidate must be the overall election winner.
- F. None of above. chosen
Statements (49)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| instanceOf |
result in probability theory
ⓘ
result in social choice theory ⓘ theorem ⓘ |
| alsoKnownAs |
Condorcet’s jury theorem
NERFINISHED
ⓘ
jury theorem NERFINISHED ⓘ |
| appliesTo |
committees
ⓘ
electorates ⓘ juries ⓘ |
| assumes |
common correct state of the world
ⓘ
each voter has probability p of being correct ⓘ identically distributed voter competence ⓘ independent voters ⓘ simple majority rule ⓘ sincere voting ⓘ voter competence p is greater than one half ⓘ |
| concerns |
binary decisions
ⓘ
collective decision-making ⓘ group accuracy ⓘ majority voting ⓘ |
| field |
political science
ⓘ
probability theory ⓘ social choice theory ⓘ voting theory ⓘ |
| hasCondition |
no strategic voting
ⓘ
no systematic correlation in voter errors ⓘ voters decide between two alternatives ⓘ voters share a common goal of choosing the correct alternative ⓘ |
| historicalPeriod | 18th century ⓘ |
| implies |
large groups can be highly reliable under suitable conditions
ⓘ
majority rule can aggregate dispersed information ⓘ wisdom of crowds under independence and competence assumptions ⓘ |
| influences |
analysis of jury size
ⓘ
design of voting institutions ⓘ theory of democratic legitimacy ⓘ |
| namedAfter | Marquis de Condorcet NERFINISHED ⓘ |
| proposedBy | Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat NERFINISHED ⓘ |
| relatedTo |
Bayesian models of voting
ⓘ
Condorcet method NERFINISHED ⓘ Condorcet paradox NERFINISHED ⓘ epistemic democracy ⓘ wisdom of crowds ⓘ |
| states |
as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 0 when p<1/2
ⓘ
as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 1 when p>1/2 ⓘ if each voter is more likely than not to be correct, majority decision converges to truth as group size grows ⓘ if p=1/2, probability that majority is correct remains 1/2 for all group sizes ⓘ probability that majority decision is correct increases with number of voters ⓘ |
| uses |
Bernoulli trials model
NERFINISHED
ⓘ
binomial distribution ⓘ law of large numbers ⓘ |
How these facts were elicited
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Instruction
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Input
Subject: Condorcet jury theorem Description of subject: The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.
Referenced by (1)
Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.
Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix
→
relatedConcept
→
Condorcet jury theorem
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