Condorcet jury theorem

E941645

result in probability theory result in social choice theory theorem

The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.

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Statements (49)

Predicate	Object
instanceOf	result in probability theory ⓘ result in social choice theory ⓘ theorem ⓘ
alsoKnownAs	Condorcet’s jury theorem NERFINISHED ⓘ jury theorem NERFINISHED ⓘ
appliesTo	committees ⓘ electorates ⓘ juries ⓘ
assumes	common correct state of the world ⓘ each voter has probability p of being correct ⓘ identically distributed voter competence ⓘ independent voters ⓘ simple majority rule ⓘ sincere voting ⓘ voter competence p is greater than one half ⓘ
concerns	binary decisions ⓘ collective decision-making ⓘ group accuracy ⓘ majority voting ⓘ
field	political science ⓘ probability theory ⓘ social choice theory ⓘ voting theory ⓘ
hasCondition	no strategic voting ⓘ no systematic correlation in voter errors ⓘ voters decide between two alternatives ⓘ voters share a common goal of choosing the correct alternative ⓘ
historicalPeriod	18th century ⓘ
implies	large groups can be highly reliable under suitable conditions ⓘ majority rule can aggregate dispersed information ⓘ wisdom of crowds under independence and competence assumptions ⓘ
influences	analysis of jury size ⓘ design of voting institutions ⓘ theory of democratic legitimacy ⓘ
namedAfter	Marquis de Condorcet NERFINISHED ⓘ
proposedBy	Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat NERFINISHED ⓘ
relatedTo	Bayesian models of voting ⓘ Condorcet method NERFINISHED ⓘ Condorcet paradox NERFINISHED ⓘ epistemic democracy ⓘ wisdom of crowds ⓘ
states	as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 0 when p<1/2 ⓘ as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 1 when p>1/2 ⓘ if each voter is more likely than not to be correct, majority decision converges to truth as group size grows ⓘ if p=1/2, probability that majority is correct remains 1/2 for all group sizes ⓘ probability that majority decision is correct increases with number of voters ⓘ
uses	Bernoulli trials model NERFINISHED ⓘ binomial distribution ⓘ law of large numbers ⓘ

Referenced by (1)

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Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix → relatedConcept → Condorcet jury theorem ⓘ